Ag Market Commentary

Most of the corn futures contracts finished the last trade day before the holiday break with losses of 1/4 to 3/4 cents. July corn futures closed 1/4 higher at $3.18. The US and China continue to make posturing statements about various issues, but the background concern is negative GDP growth in China and how soon they turn that around. Both countries are signaling that Phase One purchasing commitments are still in effect, but actual Chinese buying has lagged those levels. Some areas are reporting too much moisture for planting or drowned out spots. Others still need a drink. It is a big country! The weekly Commitment of Traders update from CFTC showed corn specs were net sellers of 245,386 contracts on May 19. Managed money funds gained 33,948 new shorts on the week.

Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.18, up 1/4 cent,

Sep 20 Corn closed at $3.22 3/4, down 1/4 cent,

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.32 3/4, down 1/4 cent,

Mar 21 Corn closed at $3.45 1/4, down 1/4 cent,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

On Friday soybeans closed with losses of 1 to 2 cents. May ’21 beans gained a penny going into the weekend. Soybean meal futures closed $1.60 to $1.70/ton higher. Friday trading left soy oil futures 47 points lower. The Commitment of Traders report showed that soybean spec traders net long fell 20,401 contracts to 12,064. Managed money closed 6.7% of their longs wk/wk and opened 14,093 new shorts. In soymeal, managed money was 64% more short on the week, to 29,404 contracts. That came via new selling. The report also showed soybean oil spec traders flipped to net long. Managed money OI was up 4,174 contracts, to 99,591. Argentina soybean processors crushed a low 3.66 MMT of beans in April due to coronavirus issues.

Jul 20 Soybeans closed at $8.33 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents,

Aug 20 Soybeans closed at $8.36 1/2, down 2 cents,

Sep 20 Soybeans closed at $8.38 1/2, down 1 1/2 cents,

Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $8.44 1/2, down 1 cent,

Jul 20 Soybean Meal closed at $284.10, up $1.60

Jul 20 Soybean Oil closed at $26.64, down $0.47

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Front month SRW wheat goes into the weekend after closing 5 to 7 1/4 cents lower on Friday. KC HRW wheat futures closed 9 to 10 cents lower on the last trade day of the week. MPLS HRS futures closed down by 3 3/4 to 5 cents. The CoT report showed SRW spec traders flipped to net short in the week ending May 19. Managed money was 16,476 contracts net short from 2,982 net long last week. Managed money also flipped net short wk/wk in KC HRW to 15,038 contracts. In MPLS wheat, spec traders were 758 contracts more short to a record bearish position of 25,401 contracts. Japan purchased 110,573 MT of wheat in their weekly MOA tender, with 67,441 MT U.S. origin.

Jul 20 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.08 3/4, down 7 1/4 cents,

Jul 20 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.44 1/2, down 10 cents,

Jul 20 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.13, down 5 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

At the sound of the week’s closing bell live cattle futures were down by as much as $1.10. The losses were mostly up front and Feb ’21 futures closed with 32 cent gains. Feeder cattle futures were mixed after trading higher at midday. The front months were 2 to 7 cents higher at the close, save for August feeders which fell by 7 cents. The 05/21 Feeder Cattle Index from CME was 36 cents lower at $126.24. USDA Cattle on Feed inventory was 11.2m head on May 1st, down 5.14% yr/yr. The trade was expecting a 4-5% drop. USDA reported 1.432m head were placed, down 22.26%, and 1.459m head were marketed, down 24.33% from May 2019. USDA reported some light cash activity at $110 and $115 on Friday, but reported the bulk was $120 for the week. CoT numbers showed managed money was slightly more net long on the week to 13,204 contracts. Feeder cattle specs were 1,075 contracts net long on May 19. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower again as they continue to unwind from the unprecedented peak. Choice boxes were down by $5.07 to $396.74 cwt. Select boxes were $8.35 lower to $374.18 cwt. USDA estimates FI cattle slaughter for the week at 555,000 head through Saturday. YTD slaughter is estimated at 12.113m head, trailing last year by 6.9%.

Jun 20 Cattle closed at $97.700, down $1.100,

Aug 20 Cattle closed at $97.325, down $0.900,

Oct 20 Cattle closed at $99.400, down $0.500,

Aug 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $128.800, down $0.075

Sep 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $130.150, up $0.025

Oct 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $131.250, up $0.075

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Going into Memorial Day weekend, lean hog futures closed $1.00 to $1.37 lower, save for June hogs which were 57 cents lower to $58.77 cwt. The CME Lean Hog index was another $1.39 lower on May 20, at $64.59. USDA National Average Afternoon Base Hog price was $1.42 higher to $39.37. The Commitment of Traders report showed managed money funds were 9,370 contacts net long on May 19. That was down 2,861 contracts from their previous net long on net new selling. Lean hog spec traders have been net long for 22 consecutive weeks, their previous net long lasted for 36 weeks. The National Pork Carcass Cutout Value was $96.75 on Friday after a $1.10 drop. The primals were mostly lower on Friday, save for Loins which were up $8.06 to $153.35. USDA estimated WTD hog slaughter under Federal Inspection at 2.130m head through Saturday. That is up 32k head from last week, but 180k below the same week last year. YTD hog slaughter is 50.09m hogs, compared to 50.65m from last year’s pace.

Jun 20 Hogs closed at $58.775, down $0.575,

Jul 20 Hogs closed at $55.900, down $1.275

Aug 20 Hogs closed at $54.275, down $1.000

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

After Friday’s trading, cotton futures were down 45 to 89 points. July to Dec carry is 20 points, down 44 points from yesterday. In CFTC’s weekly update, managed money was shown at 9,684 contracts net short. That was 5,324 contracts less net short wk/wk as there was short covering and net new buying. On net cotton spec trader OI was down 2,458. Through Thursday, there were 4,031 bales sold on The Seam. USDA’s weekly cotton report noted 7,312 bales sold at spot for the week ending 05/21. The average spot price for the week was up 1.08 cents to 53.88 c/lb. in the Weekly Cotton Market review, USDA reported heavy wind and 1/4” hail may have damaged some young cotton plants in West TX. The 05/21 Cotlook A index was down a penny to 66.35c/lb. The updated AWP for the week is 48.01 cents/lb, and the LDP is 3.99 cents/lb.

Jul 20 Cotton closed at 57.61, down 45 points,

Oct 20 Cotton closed at 57.51, down 86 points

Dec 20 Cotton closed at 57.81, down 89 points

Mar 21 Cotton closed at 58.73, down 74 points

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

Did you know Brugler Marketing & Management has more to offer to you than just this free daily commentary?! Producers just like you rely on our custom research and daily guidance on when and how to market their commodities. Click here to learn more about what we have to offer, or call 402-697-3623. Do it today!

Do you want to know what trades Alan Brugler recommends? Subscribe to Ag Market Professional, and become part of the Brugler client group! Not sure? Ask for a FREE SAMPLE and get two FREE GIFTS! Start here

Want this Ag News delivered to your inbox? Get the FREE Brugler Ag Newsletter, delivered 3 times daily.